Modelling is an essential tool for oil spill contingency planning. For planning situations, we run OSCAR (Oil Spill Contingency and Response), a 3D model that allows for both surface and subsea modelling, to capture oil as it rises through the water column. By combining the outputs of multiple oil spill trajectories, simulating temporally varying wind and current conditions, OSCAR produces statistical (stochastic) outputs from which worst case scenarios can be identified and planned for.
Modelling in planning situations is often used to support:
A primary interest during planning situations is to understand the worst-case situation that could occur. Stochastic techniques used within the modelling identify the potential spill scale and extent. This information can be used by planners to produce an effective and appropriate response plan. Deterministic (trajectory) models can also be run, to identify the worst case scenarios, such as the most oil ashore, fastest oil to shore or greatest impact upon a specified sensitivity.
A modelling study by OSRL can provide information such as:
The modelling results are presented as a series of maps as well as tabulated summaries included in a report. The modelling outputs can also be used to inform further preparedness work such as sensitivity mapping or tactical response plan development.
The practical in-field experience and expertise of our dedicated modelling specialists ensures expert development of scenarios and a thorough understanding of the practical modelling process. Use of processing tools developed in-house to further analyse stochastic data, producing relevant, client-tailored outputs. We stay in constant contact with our customers from the outset, advising them on input parameters and metocean data suitability, helping to develop the scenarios applicable customers' needs.
For response situations we use OILMAP. OILMAP is a 2D model that can be run quickly and is used to provide a 5-day forecast of where the oil may go and what will happen to it. The model allows for rapid trajectory modelling of oil spills. Using real-time and forecast wind and current data, OSRL’s dedicated modelling team predict the development of oil spills, producing outputs to support response planning.
Modelling in response situations is often used for:
OSRL’s modelling team recognises the importance of preparing for the worst and can provide modelling inputs for your oil spill exercises. For maximum learning benefit we can work with you to plan your exercise, particularly if you have a specific scenario. Alternatively, you can call during the exercise to receive the modelling you would require in a real spill scenario.
Our response modelling is available 24/7 through the Duty Manager. The on-call modeller will review the scenario details and source appropriate metocean data before running the model. The results are used to produce a short report showing the predicted trajectory and fate of oil over the next five days.
Check out our Knowledge Hub, full of resources to provide a insight into how oil spill modelling is used both during an oil spill and for preparedness activities.