Preparedness

Modelling is an essential tool for oil spill contingency planning. For planning situations, we run OSCAR (Oil Spill Contingency and Response), a 3D model that allows for both surface and subsea modelling, to capture oil as it rises through the water column. By combining the outputs of multiple oil spill trajectories, simulating temporally varying wind and current conditions, OSCAR produces statistical (stochastic) outputs from which worst case scenarios can be identified and planned for.

Modelling in planning situations is often used to support:

• Oil Spill Contingency Plans (OSCPs) and Oil Pollution Emergency Plans (OPEPs)
• Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs)
• Legislative requirements
• Oil spill training exercises
• Dispersant effectiveness studies

A primary interest during planning situations is to understand the worst-case situation that could occur. Stochastic techniques used within the modelling identify the potential spill scale and extent. This information can be used by planners to produce an effective and appropriate response plan. Deterministic (trajectory) models can also be run, to identify the worst case scenarios, such as the most oil ashore, fastest oil to shore or greatest impact upon a specified sensitivity.

A modelling study by OSRL can provide information such as:

• Potential Impact
  • Surface, shoreline and water column compartments
  • Probability, minimum arrival time and severity of oiling
  • Calculated for protected areas or the shorelines and maritime boundaries of countries.
• Mass of oil / emulsion impacting the shore
• Seasonal variation
• Oil weathering and mass balance

Features:

• Capture effects of a subsea release and plume
• Country and sensitivity-specific impacts accurately determined using in-house processing tools
• Completed by OSRL’s dedicated modelling team (available 24/7 during an incident)
• Fits directly into Oil Spill Contingency Plan (OSCP), Oil Pollution Emergency Plan (OPEP) or Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), working alongside our Consultants.
• We use a dedicated modelling server to enable rapid project turnaround

The modelling results are presented as a series of maps as well as tabulated summaries included in a report. The modelling outputs can also be used to inform further preparedness work such as sensitivity mapping or tactical response plan development.  

The practical in-field experience and expertise of our dedicated modelling specialists ensures expert development of scenarios and a thorough understanding of the practical modelling process. Use of processing tools developed in-house to further analyse stochastic data, producing relevant, client-tailored outputs. We stay in constant contact with our customers from the outset, advising them on input parameters and metocean data suitability, helping to develop the scenarios applicable customers' needs.

Response

For response situations we use OILMAP. OILMAP is a 2D model that can be run quickly and is used to provide a 5-day forecast of where the oil may go and what will happen to it. The model allows for rapid trajectory modelling of oil spills. Using real-time and forecast wind and current data, OSRL’s dedicated modelling team predict the development of oil spills, producing outputs to support response planning.

Modelling in response situations is often used for: 

• Predicting the trajectory and fate of the oil,
  • This is especially in the initial stages of the spill before regular surveillance operations have been set up.
• Directing assets (vessels & aircraft) to the likely location of the oil.
• Understanding potential for shoreline impact.

OSRL’s modelling team recognises the importance of preparing for the worst and can provide modelling inputs for your oil spill exercises. For maximum learning benefit we can work with you to plan your exercise, particularly if you have a specific scenario. Alternatively, you can call during the exercise to receive the modelling you would require in a real spill scenario.

Features:

• Available 24/7
• Completed by the same dedicated modelling team that completes modelling for your contingency plans
• Informs spill response plan
• Available for exercise development and support
• Outputs delivered rapidly (normally within 2 hours)
• Outputs include report, video and shapefiles
• Shapefiles suitable for GIS mapping software and Google Earth

Our response modelling is available 24/7 through the Duty Manager. The on-call modeller will review the scenario details and source appropriate metocean data before running the model. The results are used to produce a short report showing the predicted trajectory and fate of oil over the next five days.